Sunday, February 28, 2010

Why Greece changes everything

In the old days, government debt was risk free as investors bought and sold sovereign bonds on a strategy based on a country’s interest rate outlook. In simple terms, investment decisions were made on inflationary pressures in the various economies as the prospects of monetary tightening or loosening and the relative value of yields dictated a fund‘s weightings in the government debt of various countries.

A vegetarian leaks.

Forex Weekly Outlook – March 1-5 2010

The first week of the month is always busy in forex trading. Apart from Non-Farm Payrolls, we have 3 GDP releases and 4 rate decisions from all over the world, and many other major events. Let’s see what’s awaiting us on the crowded calendar.

The Non-Farm Payrolls will definitely attract more and more attention and cause more tension as the week proceeds. Remember to be very careful with trading this event. Check out my 5 notes for Non-Farm Payrolls trading. OK, let’s start the outlook:

  1. European Unemployment Rate: Published on Monday at 10:00 GMT. One of biggest burdens on Europe is unemployment rate, standing at 10%, double digits, for two months. In Spain, the number reaches 20%. A drop in this figure is essential for moving the interest rate, but it will probably take the other direction and rise to 10.1%
  2. Canadian GDP: Published on Monday at 13:30 GMT. Canada’s unique monthly GDP has posted three positive months, with the last print being better than expected 0.4%. The upcoming release is expected to show another 0.4% rise and completes the data for Q4 of 2009 and should provide another boost for the Canadian dollar.
  3. American ISM Manufacturing PMI: Published on Monday at 15:00 GMT. This important purchasing managers’ index has been on the rise and jumped up to 58.4 points last month, significantly better than expected. It’s now predicted to ease to 57.9 points.
  4. Australian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 03:30 GMT. After last month’s disappointing decision not to raise the rates, there have been different hints about the upcoming decision, most of them leading to a fourth rate hike, to 4%. This should help the Australian dollar, that was hurt by risk aversion trading.
  5. Swiss GDP: Published on Tuesday at 06:45 GMT. Switzerland was relived of 3 quarters of contraction in Q3 of 2009, when the economy grew by 0.3%. This stable recovery is expected to continue and push the Swissy upwards, despite the central bank’s effort to bring it down.
  6. Canadian rate decision: Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT. The BOC is expected to leave the Overnight Rate unchanged at 0.25%, and again, the focus will be on the rate statement. The BOC was very clear about the timing – June 2010. Some expected a declaration about an earlier move, but this didn’t happen in previous decisions. Will it happen this time?
  7. American Beige Book: Published on Tuesday at 19:00 GMT. Two weeks before the FOMC meeting which decides on rates, this overview of the economy is released to the public. This could provide a hint about the next decision, or the next moves by the Fed, such as the recent surprising mini rate hike.
  8. Australian GDP: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The Australian economy enjoyed an improving job market throughout the fourth quarter of 2009, and this should be reflected in the GDP as well, showing the strength of the Australian economy. Q3 was disappointing, with a small growth rate of 0.2%. A strong growth rate of 0.9% is now expected.
  9. American ADP Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Wednesday at 13:15 GMT. This release always shakes the markets, as it’s sometimes considered to be a strong indicator for the Non-Farm Payrolls. Last month it showed a loss of only 22K jobs, better than expected – but the Non-Farm Payrolls were worse than expected. So this figure should be handled with care. It’s expected to show a small drop of 9K.
  10. American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Published on Wednesday at 15:00 GMT. In the non-manufacturing sectors, the situation isn’t as good as in manufacturing. ISM showed a score of only 50.5 points, hardly above the critical 50 point mark that indicates economic expansion. This figure fell short of expectations in the past four months. A small rise to 51 is expected.
  11. British rate decision: Published on Thursday at 12:00 GMT. Mervyn King hurts the Pound every week. This time, his chance will come at the decision about the Official Bank Rate which will probably stay at 0.5%. Also the Quantitative Easing program (Asset Purchase Facility) isn’t predicted to move from the 200 billion pound already allocated to it, but there might be hints about its renewal.
  12. European rate decision: Published on Thursday at 12:45 GMT. Just 45 minutes after the British decision, Jean-Claude Trichet’s ECB will announce the European Minimum Bid Rate. Also here, no changes are expected, but the complementary ECB Press Conference will supply lots of action. The Greek crisis will still be in the limelight.
  13. American Unemployment Claims: Published on Thursday at 13:30 GMT. Providing the last hint about the Non-Farm Payrolls, this weekly release is expected to show some improvement after last week’s disappointing figure – a rise to 496K, a number not seen in a long time. It’s expected to drop back to 474K.
  14. American Pending Home Sales: Published on Thursday at 15:00 GMT. This figure returned to stability last month, rising by 1%, but this time it’s predicted to fall again as the housing sector continues to suffer, as we see in the new and existing home sales numbers. A rise of 1.6% is expected.
  15. Non-Farm Payrolls: Published on Friday at 13:30 GMT. After two more months of negative numbers, the king of forex, the predictions now turned negative. Last month’s releases were confusing, as 20K jobs were lost, but the unemployment rate dropped significantly from 10% to 9.7%. Will it be confusing again? Or will we see finally see good numbers? This event will impact forex trading before and after the event, for quite some time. Current expectations are for another loss of jobs: 35,000. Also the unemployment rate is expected to be bad, edging up to 9.8%.

That’s it for the major events this week. I’ll later post specific currency coverages. Have a great week!

Monday, February 15, 2010

Tips That Will Assist You To Achieve Success In Forex Trading

One of the ways to trade Forex is using price action setups, which is very effective when used by beginners and useful for experienced traders as well. Price action setups are so effective, because you are not hiding important price patterns beneath lots of slow indicators or trying to trade with the help of some complex expert advisor or something like that. This trading strategy helps you see much easier what the market movements are trying to tell you. When you become an experienced Forex trader using price action setups, you will easily understand the charts, because they will kind of speak to you. You will have an idea of what is happening on the market and won’t have to question your trading method.

While you learn Forex trading, you will be able to discover yourself and will be able to find out how to handle your feelings. When you just start learning Forex trading, it is important to realize that the understanding and achieving professional trading doesn’t come from a complex trading system or strategy. Most expert traders have learned the lesson through trial and error that success in Forex trading doesn’t depend on method alone. Trading strategy is important, but it shouldn’t be a very complicated one. On the contrary, usually an easy to understand trading strategy like price action analysis is the one to create the best conditions for trading with discipline.

In order to achieve long term success in Forex trading, probably the most important factor is to develop the right mindset and gain a solid discipline while maintaining it at the same level. A lot of novice traders underestimate this fact or simply forget about it thinking that they can master Forex market with a piece of software or trading system, which claims to win 90% of the time. Most experienced traders have winning trades 60% of the time, which means they lose as well. But their secret is that they have found a way to make more money on their successful trades and lose less in failing trades. Besides, they have also learned how to maintain discipline and one of the most important aspects in maintaining discipline in Forex market is adopting an effective and reliable trading method along with understanding that all you need is wait till your next setup.

Using price action setups, you will be provided by setups of high probability and the ability to navigate the market according to pure price movement, which is the most reliable and important tool. All you need to do is master a couple of price action setups and then you will get the ability to create an effective and profitable trading method with this technique.

If you want to participate in forex trading should start from learning the basics of currency exchange market to make sure you do not have problems with this industry.

There is another option – you can hire experienced traders to do this job for you – read more about forex investment here. Also make sure to search for the knowledge in a good forex book.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Forex News Trader


How do the majority of profitable Forex traders truly profit in the FX market? One way… they trade the news!

Forex News Trader was developed to give traders the edge they need to learn how to trade based on economic news events from around the world. The same edge the institutions use to make hundreds of millions and even billions of dollars in profit each year.

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Euro Holds Narrow Range as EU Aims to Bailout Greece, British Pound Testing Channel Support

The Euro bounced to a high of 1.3802 during the overnight trade on the back of U.S. dollar weakness, but the lack of momentum to retrace the previous day’s decline may keep the exchange rate within the downward trending channel from the January high (1.4581).

Talking Points
• Japanese Yen: Mixed Across the Board
• Pound: Testing Lower Bounds of Channel Formation
• Euro: ECB Reiterates Rates Are Appropriate
• US Dollar: Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims on Tap

Euro Holds Narrow Range as EU Aims to Bailout Greece, British Pound Testing Channel Support


The Euro bounced to a high of 1.3802 during the overnight trade on the back of U.S. dollar weakness, but the lack of momentum to retrace the previous day’s decline may keep the exchange rate within the downward trending channel from the January high (1.4581). Meanwhile, the European Union summit in Brussels was pushed back two hours due to snowy conditions, while policy makers came together ahead of the meeting to discuss possible bailout options for Greece, and comments from the EU is likely to move the markets as investors speculate Germany and France to lead the unprecedented efforts.

Nevertheless, the European Central Bank said “current rates remain appropriate” in its monthly report, and expects price pressures to remain subdued as policy makers anticipate an uneven recovery this year. Moreover, the central bank reiterated that the Governing Council could take further steps to unwind the emergency measures at its next meeting in March, and sees the economy growing at a moderate pace as “the outlook remains subject to uncertainly.” At the same time, the ECB argued “high levels of public deficits and debt place an additional burden on monetary policy,” and the central bank may keep borrowing costs at the record-low going into the second-half of the year as they maintain a dovish outlook for inflation. Meanwhile, wholesale price in Germany increased 1.3% in January after rising 0.2% in the previous month, while the annualize rate jumped 1.9% from a year earlier to mark the fastest pace of growth since October 2008.

The British Pound lost ground during the European trade, with the exchange rate pulling back from the high (1.5663) to remain little changed on the day, and we may see the GBP/USD continue to test the lower bounds of the channel formation from November as it fails to retrace the decline from Wednesday. As the economic docket for the U.K. remains bare for the rest of the week, we are likely to see risk trends drive price action for Cable but, we may see a short-term correction over the next few days of trading as the daily RSI approaches oversold territory.

The greenback lost ground against most of its currency counterparts, with the USD/JPY crossing back below the 10-Day SMA (89.91) to reach a low of 89.62, and we may see risk trends drive price action going into the North American session as the economic docket remains fairly light for the next 12-hours of trading. The U.S. labor market is expected to improve as economists forecast initial jobless claims to weaken to 465K in the week ending February 6 from 480K in the week prior, while continuing claims are projected to fall to 4600K as of January 30 from 4602K. Nevertheless, European Commission President Jose Barroso announced EU officials have reached an accord, which will be announced by the presidency following the summit, and the remarks from the meeting are likely to shake up the currency market as policy makers aim to take unprecedented steps to shore up the Euro-Zone.


Read more: DailyFX - Euro Holds Narrow Range as EU Aims to Bailout Greece, British Pound Testing Channel Support http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/us_open/2010-02-11-1209-Euro_Holds_Narrow_Range_as.html#ixzz0f9tUy7IL

Rejecting status quo, Google plans digital networks

Boston seeks to be a test site for the 20-times-faster service

Google says it will decide later this year where it will build digital networks to showcase ultra high speed service.

Yesterday, the search engine titan said it will create powerful new digital networks in several communities to push cable companies like Verizon Communications and Comcast Corp. to improve their products.

Google will run optical fiber to between 50,000 and 500,000 customers in locations it has yet to choose. The cables, installed underground or strung between utility poles, can carry much more data at far greater speeds than traditional cable or wireless technologies.

The company is asking individuals and local governments to submit proposals by March 26 to have networks built in their communities.

The prospect of being a test site for the fastest US data networks had officials in Boston and elsewhere in Massachusetts saying they are eager to apply. They hope competition from Google will drive cable bills down.

“We absolutely will be in. We’re going to try to get our application in early,’’ said William Oates, chief information officer for the City of Boston.

“I like this,’’ said Joseph Petty, a city councilor in Worcester. “This is something the city would be very much interested in . . . to bring down prices.’’

Google will select sites this year. “We might choose a small neighborhood in an urban area,’’ said Richard Whitt, Google’s telecom and media counsel. “We might also choose a rural area.’’

The question is whether Google will become a major broadband provider, or simply push companies like Comcast and Verizon to build faster networks.

“If Google demonstrates there is a demand for these services, they might be more tempted to opt for more deployment,’’ said Carl Howe, a telecommunications analyst with Yankee Group in Boston.

“Their real goal seems to be to illustrate what’s possible with really fast broadband,’’ he added.

That would be a boon for Google’s core Internet business. Faster broadband connections would make it easier to use Google products, including its new social-networking service and its popular video site YouTube.

But Doug Williams, an analyst at Forrester Research in Cambridge, said it’s unlikely Google would build a nationwide telecom network, given the expense. “Fiber to the home, starting from scratch, would be an enormous, enormous investment,’’ he said.

Google would have to dig up streets and yards to lay cable, negotiate with phone companies for the right to hang fiber from their poles, and pay to run the fiber to thousands of households.

Verizon, for example, is spending $23 billion on its own fiber-optic-to-the-home network, which will reach just 18 million homes in 16 states.

Google does not yet know what its total investment will be, Whitt said, but the price of its Internet service would be competitive with existing rates.

Google could also make money by leasing access to its high-speed networks to other Internet and cable providers, a possibility mentioned by Whitt.

Google is betting that once consumers have access to speeds at least 20 times faster than any current service offers, they will come up with new ways to use it, including for ultrafast downloads of high-definition movies or live streaming of 3D video.

In an e-mailed statement, Verizon spokesman Phil Santoro said: “Google’s expansion of its networks to enter the access market is another new paragraph in this exciting story.’’

Comcast declined to comment, but forwarded a statement from Brian Dietz, spokesman for the National Cable & Telecommunications Association:

“The cable industry has invested $161 billion over the past 13 years to build a nationwide broadband infrastructure that is available to 92 percent of U.S. homes. We will continue to invest billions more to continually improve the speed and performance of our networks.’’

More Tools for Sifting Through Government Data

February 11, 2010, 12:09 pm

national data catalognationaldatacatalog.com The Sunlight Foundation is currently testing nationaldatacatalog.com, a Web site to help organize government data.

In a blog post on Wednesday, Clay Johnson, director of the Sunlight Foundation, discussed the “data flood” coming out of Washington and the need for more applications to deal with the new era of government information.

The Sunlight Foundation is a non-profit organization with a goal of digitizing government data and building Web sites to help make the current data deluge more manageable. The foundation hopes to help solve some of these data overload problems with new tools, including a Web site they are currently testing: nationaldatacatalog.com. It will organize government data sets and try to give more context to this information.

As the government continues to open more information, tools like these will become invaluable.

As of February 2009, the federal government offers 1,087 different data feeds. These feeds range from Environmental Protection Agency inventory of toxic chemicals by location to Federal Aviation Administration flight schedule information. The federal government has also released 106,000 “shape files” on data.gov, which can be used to create maps using granular data.

Mr. Johnson explained that all of this data is a great sign for open government, but “a new problem is starting to arise — classifying and organizing this information.”

“Recently, we’ve seen some amazing tools spring up around data.gov, and even some companies,” he said. “One company uses the F.A.A. data and weather information to try to predict flight delays.”

More of the data coming out each week could be used to help tell any number of stories. For example, the State Department recently released a copious amount of fascinating information. One data set of the political conflicts on the African continent could be used to map the boundaries of those conflicts rather than the geographical borders.

Another interesting data set comes from the Department of Interior with information on fires across the United States started by humans from 1960 to 2008. Mr. Johnson explained, “You could start to see if fires are happening less frequently now than 40 years ago, and if they being created by humans.”

But it is still going to take more tools and Web sites to sift through this information and find the important pieces that will help shed light on this information flood.

“As we start pushing these data sets out they add a crack in a huge dam, and as more students, journalists and programmers have the opportunity to look through this information, we can learn more about our government,” Mr. Johnson said. 
“Eventually it’s going to explode, but it’s going to take a lot of work to organize it all.”

AOL Cracks Open AIM’s Door and Lets in Facebook


February 10, 2010, 8:32 am

AOL is finally opening up AOL Instant Messenger, its popular chat network.

As Miguel Helft and I reported Wednesday, AOL is integrating Facebook chat with AIM, which is actively used by 17 million people each month in the United States. People who download the new AIM software (here in beta) can use it to chat with their Facebook friends without logging into Facebook

The move is long overdue. While services like Meebo, Apple’s iChat and Google Chat have integrated with other chat services over the years, growing more useful and stronger as a result, the AIM software has remained a lonely island: log onto AIM, and you can only chat with your AIM friends. That, along with the occasionally overbearing advertisements in the AIM software, has sent many users packing for other online chat tools.

Brad Garlinghouse, president for Internet and mobile communications at AOL, said that in the past AOL had not adapted its instant messenger service to meet user expectations of interoperability. Under a new management team, AOL’s attitude is changing.

“We are now taking risks that historically we would not have taken,” he said. “People who use AIM are much more likely to use other parts of the AOL experience. So for us we are looking at creating a more useful product. This is about getting back to basics.”

Canon Improves Entry-Level Rebel D.S.L.R.


Photo

Canon has extended the capabilities of its EOS Rebel consumer D.S.L.R.’s with the new EOS Rebel T2i, which brings some of the features of the midrange EOS 7D to the starter camera space.

The new EOS Rebel T2i will be available for $800 (body only) or $900 packaged with a Canon EF-S 18-55mm f/3.5-5.6 IS zoom lens. That looks like a pretty sweet deal, considering that its features fall somewhere between those of the $800 EOS Rebel T1i and the $1,699 EOS 7D.

The new T2i employs the same size 18-megapixel APS-C sensor and 63-zone metering system as the 7D. It’s not as fast, however, with a shooting speed that’s rated at 3.7 frames per second, which is in line with the TS1.

As for video, the T2i moves up to full high-def video capture at a resolution of 1920×1080. Canon has added selectable frame rates, full manual exposure control, and a new external stereo mic input. The company also says autofocus can now be used during video recording by pressing the shutter button halfway when you need to change the focus setting.

For those who shoot a lot of low-light scenes, the T2i has a basic ISO range that extends to 6400 and a ± 5 EV exposure compensation range, enabling more versatility in extremely bright or dark environments

The T2i’s crisp 3-inch LCD has a resolution of 1.04 million pixels, beating the displays of both the 7D and the T1i. The camera also supports new SDXC memory cards, which will come in capacities of up to a whopping 2 terabytes (64-gigabyte cards should be available this spring).

Look for the EOS Rebel T2i camera in early March.

Canon also took the wraps off four new PowerShot point-and-shoot cameras: the PowerShot SX210 IS, PowerShot SD3500 IS, PowerShot SD1400 IS, and PowerShot SD1300 IS.

Canon says it has enhanced the Smart Auto mode in these PowerShots so that users can achieve better results in a wider variety of shooting situations. The company also added fish-eye and miniature to its selection of image effects. The Smart FE (Flash Exposure) feature has been improved to provide the optimum combination of flash, aperture, ISO, and shutter speed; a Low Light Mode now broadens the ISO range up to 6400, allowing more light to be captured in low-light shooting conditions.

And three of the four new PowerShots can shoot 720p high-def video. All support the forthcoming SDXC memory cards.

• The $350 PowerShot SX210 IS is has a 28mm wide-angle lens with a versatile 14X optical zoom shoehorned into a camera that’s only 1.3 inches thick. It can capture 720p HD video and can zoom optically and shoot in stereo sound when capturing video. This 14.1-megapixel camera will come in your choice of black, purple, or gold, and will be available in late March.

• The $330 PowerShot SD3500 IS is a new touch-screen camera with a large 3.5-inch LCD and a very wide 24mm lens that zooms to 5X. The camera can capture 720p high-def video. Look for it in late February in black, silver, and pink.

• The $250 PowerShot SD1400 IS is a svelte snapshooter (it measures only 0.7–inch thick) that will slip into most any pocket. It has a 28mm lens with 4X zoom and can capture 720p HD video. It will be available in pink, orange, silver, and black in late February.

• The PowerShot SD1300 IS, priced at $200, delivers nice looks and basic features at a reasonable cost. It features a 28mm lens with 4X zoom but shoots only standard-definition video. It will be available late February in silver, pink, green, blue, and brown.

Samsung Gets the Amoled Out

February 9, 2010, 12:07 pm

Personal Computing

Samsung created a whole bunch of fuss at January’s consumer electronics extravaganza with its prototype laptop that displayed stunning OLED images on a clear “see-though” screen. It all seemed a bit sci-fi-ish, but reports are that the Korean brand will bring Amoled (active-matrix organic light-emitting diode) devices to market in the next year.

IceTouch

According to the site PlusPlastic Electronics, as a teaser to the laptop, in the next few months Samsung will offer a portable audio/video player, the IceTouch, that incorporates the technology, much as Sony has dipped a toe into the OLED pool with its $2,500, 11-inch desktop TV and its Walkman X series. OLED screens have also found their way into mobile phones, an advantage in that arena because they consume less battery power.

The 16-gigabyte IceTouch, also on display at C.E.S., has a 2-inch screen. Probable price: more than $300.

Although the laptop screen showed off fabulous color and detail, the sensation is a bit disconcerting, since one sees objects, lights and shadows right through it.

“We have a lab in Korea that is currently working on developing a laptop with partially-transparent screen,” Reid Sullivan of Samsung Electronics America told PlusPlastic. “Soon, I imagine that all Samsung’s audiovisual products will feature this technology. We want to be the first in this market.”

U.S. Economy to Strengthen, Reducing Unemployment, Survey Says

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. unemployment peaked in October and will retreat through 2011 as the economy strengthens, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, more than anticipated a month ago, according to the median estimate of 62 economists polled this month. The jobless rate, which reached a 26-year high of 10.1 percent in October, will end the year at 9.5 percent.

Efforts to rebuild inventories, investments in new equipment and software and improving sales overseas will spur employment and household spending. Scant inflation will give Federal Reserve policy makers room to keep the target interest rate near zero through the third quarter, buying the economy enough time to reach a self-sustaining expansion.

“It’s a matter of time before strength in the economy effectively feeds on itself, with more employment leading to stronger spending, which in turn leads to more employment,” said James O’Sullivan, global chief economist at MF Global Ltd. in New York. “The key is going to be the business sector leading the way and consumer spending following.”

Consumer purchases, which account for 70 percent of the economy, will grow 2 percent this year and expand 2.5 percent in 2011. By comparison, spending rose 3.3 percent on average over the two decades through 2007.

“Consumption has been on an uptrend,” said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “The main reason for the pickup in recent months has been an improvement in the labor market.”

Less Unemployment

Unemployment fell to 9.7 percent last month from 10 percent in December, according to the Labor Department. Joblessness will average 9.1 percent in 2011.

A growing economy this year may generate 1.4 million jobs, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed this month by Blue Chip Economic Indicators. The U.S. has lost 8.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the most in the post-World War II period.

President Barack Obama last week announced he will back a temporary increase in Small Business Administration loans to $1 million from $350,000 to encourage hiring after government figures showed an unexpected loss of 20,000 jobs in January,

The administration says the $787 billion stimulus plan passed one year ago this month has funded up to 2 million jobs, yet more needs to be done.

Obama Proposals

“Far too many of our neighbors and friends and family are still out of work,” Obama said after touring a small business in the Washington suburb of Lanham, Maryland, last week.

The lack of jobs means companies will have to carry the economy in coming months by updating equipment, said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York.

“Businesses simply haven’t invested enough in new Equipment, and I think there is pent-up demand,” said Resler.

Purchases of equipment and software increased at a 13 percent pace in the fourth quarter, the most since 2006, the government reported Jan. 29.

W.R. Grace & Co., the maker of catalysts and construction materials that is preparing to exit bankruptcy protection, is among companies planning to boost investments as global demand improves.

Sales volumes will rise 3 percent to 7 percent this year as spending on construction projects in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America rises, the Columbia, Maryland-based company said Feb. 2. It plans a 44 percent increase in capital spending to better support the projected sales gains.

Growth Accelerates

The U.S. economy grew at a 5.7 percent annual pace in last year’s fourth quarter, the best performance in six years, the government reported Jan. 29. Efforts to stabilize inventories contributed 3.4 percentage points to growth.

While the amount of the contribution will slow, the need to replenish stockpiles will keep factories growing. Manufacturing expanded in January at the fastest pace since 2004 as orders and production increased, the Institute for Supply Management said this month.

Households are still trying to overcome a record loss of wealth during the recession as home values and stock prices slumped, one reason why spending will be slow to recover.

Rising stocks are helping mend tattered balance sheets. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 65 percent last year from its 12-year low reached on March 9. The rebound has stalled with the gauge falling 4.2 percent so far this year as China stepped up efforts to curb lending, the Obama administration proposed rules to rein in risk-taking at banks and concern grew over government debt levels in Greece, Spain and Portugal.

Less Inflation

Little inflation on the horizon means the Fed will hold the target rate for overnight loans between banks at its current range of zero to 0.25 percent through the first nine months of the year, according the median estimate of economists surveyed this month, the same as in the prior survey. The rate will rise to 0.75 percentage point by the end of the year.

The central bank’s preferred price gauge, which tracks consumer spending and excludes food and fuel costs, will rise 1.3 percent this year, the smallest gain since 1964, according to the survey median.

To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Willis in Washington bwillis@bloomberg.net; Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: February 11, 2010 00:00 EST

Euro Falls as EU’s Greece Agreement Offers Limited Measures

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The euro tumbled against all of its most-traded counterparts after an agreement brokered by the European Union to help Greece weather its debt crisis offered few details.

The 16-nation common currency slid as a statement issued by European leaders left open how the EU would respond to a fresh wave of speculative attacks against Greece or countries such as Spain and Portugal, which are also struggling to cut their budget deficits. Australia’s dollar gained after the country’s jobless rate unexpectedly fell last month and Chinese bank lending increased.

“We don’t have a lot of detail about what the structure of any aid or bailout is going to be,” said George Davis, chief technical analyst at Royal Bank of Canada in Toronto. “Given the state of their finances, any agreement for aid will come with conditions of what Greece has to do to get its house in order and we may see a push lower in the euro.”

The euro dropped 1 percent to $1.3606 at 11:10 a.m. in New York, from $1.3737 yesterday. It slid 1.1 percent to 122.22 yen from 123.56 yesterday. The greenback declined 0.1 percent to 89.83 yen from 89.94 yesterday.

“Euro-area member states will take determined and coordinated action if needed to safeguard financial stability in the euro area as a whole,” EU President Herman Van Rompuy told reporters today in Brussels. “We fully support the efforts of the Greek government and their commitment to do whatever is necessary including adopting additional measures.”

‘Halved By the Crisis’

The region’s common currency fell 5 percent against the dollar this year on concern that nations with the biggest debt burdens may struggle to meet their obligations. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s drive to bring his country’s increasing budget under control was yesterday challenged in the streets as labor unions closed schools, hospitals and airports.

“The strains in Europe could delay an exit from easy money policy,” said Todd Elmer, currency strategist at Citigroup Inc. in New York. “It exacerbates widening spreads in favor of the U.S. The cyclical underperformance of euro area will pull currency down.”

The euro slid against the greenback after Bundesbank President Axel Weber said he can’t rule out that the German economy will contract in the first quarter, Reuters reported, citing an interview. He also said that current interest levels are “appropriate.”

European Commission President Jose Barroso said in a presentation released by his office that reduced bank lending is holding back economic recovery in Europe and that the region’s growth potential has been “halved by the crisis.”

Aussie Gains

Australia’s dollar rose to a one-week high against the yen after a report showed employers added three times as many jobs as economists forecast, increasing pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates for a fourth time, and China’s reported lower-than-expected inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly kept its benchmark rate at 3.75 percent on Feb. 2 after three straight increases.

The number of people employed in Australia climbed by 52,700 in January, the statistics bureau said. Analysts predicted an increase of 15,000. The jobless rate fell to 5.3 percent from 5.5 percent.

China’s inflation rate fell to 1.5 percent last month from 1.9 percent in December, a report showed, less than the 2.1 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Slowing inflation damped speculation Chinese authorities would take more steps to curb growth in the world’s third-largest economy.

Dollar Index

“We’re seeing better growth in Asia lifting risk appetite,” said the board,” said Boris Schlossberg, director of currency research at the online currency trader GFT Forex in New York. “True risk seeking is focused on Australian dollar.”

The Aussie advanced 0.9 percent to 79.41 yen and rose 1.1 percent to 88.48 U.S. cents. New Zealand’s currency appreciated 0.5 percent to 62.59 yen and rallied 0.6 percent to 69.72 cents.

The Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Dollar index rose yesterday after suffering its largest drop since November as traders added to bets the Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs after Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank may boost its discount rate “before long.” The index, which calculate weights based on variances in exchange rates, slid 0.1 percent today to 101.8375.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 53 percent chance the Fed will increase its zero to 0.25 percent target lending rate by at least a quarter-percentage point by its September meeting, up from 49 percent odds a week earlier.

U.S. jobless claims fell to 440,000 from a revised 483,000 a week ago, the Labor Department reported today. The median estimate of 47 analysts in a Bloomberg survey was for a decline to 465,000.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ben Levisohn in New York at blevisohn@bloomberg.net; Paul Dobson in London at pdobson2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: February 11, 2010 11:15 EST

EU Demands Greek Cuts in Bid to Uphold Euro Stability


Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- European leaders ordered Greece to get the bloc’s highest budget deficit under control and promised “determined” action to staunch the worst crisis in the euro currency’s 11-year history.

The agreement, brokered by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, called for closer monitoring of the Greek economy and stopped short of offering concrete measures to help officials in Athens handle a debt load exceeding annual economic output. Greek bonds rose and the euro fell after the deal was announced at a European Union summit.

“It’s a political message that we wanted to send out today,” EU President Herman Van Rompuy told reporters today in Brussels. “This political message has a responsibility dimension to it. The Greek government is taking on a responsibility.”

“Our European way of life is at stake,” he said.

The EU leaders’ statement, which Merkel called a “clear political signal” to Greece, left open how the EU would respond to a fresh wave of speculative attacks against Greece or countries such as Spain and Portugal, which are also struggling to cut their budget deficits. The statement echoes prior calls for Greece to clean up its accounts and gave the International Monetary Fund a monitoring role.

Euro-region leaders also discussed the creation of a lending facility for Greece, an EU official said. States would contribute in proportion to the size of their economies, said the official in Brussels, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The official said it’s “not yet time” for a European bond.

‘Doing Something’

“Markets seem to be happy that they are doing something. The problem is if they come out with an ad hoc temporary solution for Greece then people wonder what happens when the next country comes into trouble,” said Nick Kounis, chief European economist at Fortis Bank Nederland NV in Amsterdam. “This whole thing needs to be institutionalized.”

Greek bonds, which have plunged since December on concern about the country’s ability to tackle its deficit, extended a three-day rally, with the yield on the two-year government bond falling 39 basis points to 5.07 percent as of 4:50 p.m. in Brussels.

Euro Weakens

The euro weakened 0.9 percent to $1.3616. Its slide to a nine-month low of $1.3586 on Feb. 5 forced Greece to the top of the EU agenda out of concern that market turmoil might spread.

The pre-summit statement bore the imprint of Merkel, who as head of Europe’s largest economy, pressed for strict conditions on any European financial lifeline for countries that spend too much and save too little.

“Greece won’t be left alone but there are rules and these rules must be adhered to,” Merkel told reporters. “On this basis we will agree on a statement.”

Greece, representing 2.7 percent of the bloc’s $13 trillion economy, posted a budget deficit of 12.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, the highest in the euro’s 11-year history and more than four times the EU’s 3 percent limit.

Papandreou’s government needs to sell 53 billion euros ($73 billion) of debt this year, the equivalent of about 20 percent of GDP. Greece’s credit rating was cut by Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings in December.

Papandreou’s plans to cut public-sector wages, trim welfare provisions and raise taxes have provoked street protests that threaten to throw the government off course.

‘Every Detail’

Belt-tightening measures “will be implemented in every detail,” Papandreou told reporters in Paris yesterday.

Other officials in the pre-summit crisis session included Van Rompuy, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who heads the panel of euro-region finance ministers. U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown, in London when the meeting started, said Greece is in the hands of countries using the euro.

Called by Van Rompuy to sketch out a 10-year economic strategy, the summit has turned into a crisis-management exercise that tests Europe’s ability to run a common currency with 16 separate national fiscal policies.

For that reason, EU officials have resisted putting Greece in the sole hands of the IMF, concerned that recourse to outside assistance would expose Europe’s inability to get its own house in order.

The EU needed to act to calm exaggerated fears in the markets, a French official told reporters late yesterday. Spanish Finance Minister Elena Salgado distanced Spain’s fiscal woes from Greece’s, saying “whatever is said today will be very specifically aimed at Greece.”

Break With Past

Whether from individual countries or the EU as a whole, a financial lifeline for Greece would open a new chapter in the euro experiment by breaking with the orthodoxy that each country has to steer its own economy.

“I don’t think there is any bluff here. This is a very, very serious commitment to back up Greece,” said Jacques Cailloux, chief European economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in London. “This is once in a lifetime moment for monetary union.”

To contact the reporter on this story: James G. Neuger in Brussels at jneuger@bloomberg.net

China opening up for forex?



Feb 11 2010

Not sure if I’m dreaming or not but it would appear that the Chinese regulator has approved the first ever bank in China to launch an online foreign exchange sale and purchase business. The Bank of China is the first Chinese bank to receive such an approval believe it or not – I’m not really sure how the exchange business worked until now except through forex kiosks (Travelex being one of the largest) and commercial banks.

Clients can conduct foreign exchange sales and purchases via online banking as long as they have opened passbooks of time deposits accounts or debit cards, and have registered for online banking.

The bank for now will offer the following nine foreign currencies, including the British pound, Hong Kong dollar, US dollar, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, the euro, Swiss francs, and the Singapore dollar.

Furthermore, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) issued four more “Authorized Currency Exchange” licenses to non-financial companies in Beijing: Beijing United Currency Exchange, International Currency Exchange, Beijing National Insurance Agency and Huanjiuzhou Currency Exchange.

Right now there are 15 authorized kiosks in China.

While this is not the revolution all forex brokers are eagerly anticipating this is still a very positive sign of China gradually opening up for online retail forex trading which is still largely illegal throughout this massive country. Something tells me we will see more and more such notices during 2010.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

AUD/USD Outlook – February 8-12

Like other currencies, the Aussie surrendered to the dollar before and after the NFP. The upcoming week brings important employment figures among other events. Here’s an outlook for the events in Australia and an updated AUD/USD technical analysis.

AUD/USD chart with support and resistance lines marked on it. Click to enlarge:

The Aussie suffered from a disappointing rate decision. Glenn Stevens left the rates unchanged at 3.75%, weakening the Aussie, despite the good fundamentals of the Australian economy, with employment being strong. This week we’ll get fresh job data. Let’s start:

  1. NAB Quarterly Business Confidence: Publication time is unknown. The release has been delayed. National Bank Australia release a quarterly figure in addition to a monthly one. 1,000 businesses are asked about the economic conditions. In Q3, this number rose above 0, meaning improving conditions. It’s expected to be positive also for Q4.
  2. Westpac Consumer Sentiment: Published on Tuesday at 23:30 GMT. This survey, done also with the Melbourne Institute, checks the pulse of he consumers. After two months of drops, this indicator posted a nice rise last month – 5.6%. This time, the number will probably be closer to 0.
  3. Home Loans: Published on Wednesday at 00:30 GMT. The housing sector has a strong impact on the economy and has showed a slowdown in the past two months. Last month’s disappointing drop of 5.6% is expected to be followed by a similar 4.7% fall this time – low expectations indeed.
  4. MI Inflation Expectations: Published on Thursday at midnight GMT. Rising inflation didn’t convince the central bank to raise the rates. We’ll now get another, unofficial look, courtesy of the Melbourne Institute. The past few months have seen stable price expectations from consumers – 3.5%. A more significant rise is necessary for a rise.
  5. Employment Data: Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT. Australia enjoys a healthy job market. Last month’s numbers were great, with the unemployment rate dipping to 5.5%, the lowest in 8 months. This time it’s predicted to edge back up to 5.6%. The accompanying and no less important figure, Employment Change, has shown better-than-expected gains in the past four months, including 35,200 jobs gained last month. But now, economists are careful again, and expect a gain of 15,100 jobs.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

After closing last week’s trade under 0.8950, the Aussie continued south. During most of the week it traded in a range between 0.8950 and safely above 0.8735, December’s low. After this line was breached, AUD/USD fell as low as 0.8578, very close to the 0.8567 support line, closing at 0.8670.

Looking below 0.8567, which was October’s low, 0.8477 is the next line of support. It served as a strong resistance line during the summer, before the Aussie broke upwards. This is an important line.

Even lower, 0.8240 was the resistance line beforehand, and also worked as a support line before the next push upwards. Given the new low levels, I had to add new lines on last week’s outlook.

Looking up, there are many lines now. 0.8735 is the first line of resistance, followed by the mighty 0.8950. Higher, 0.9090 is a minor resistance line, followed by 0.9170. 0.9322 is the next line, and it’s very strong. These areas were seen just a few weeks ago, and now seem far away.

I am neutral on AUD/USD.

The Aussie sure lost its mojo after the disappointing rate decision. I believe that strong employment figures will keep from more falls during this week.